BIG MARLEY’S UFC 227 BETTING PREVIEW

There’s a good deal of cash to be won this week on DraftKings including a top prize of $30k from the main tournament. DK also has lots of Qualifier contests on this week, where the last event will pay $50k to 1st for those who did qualify to perform inside. I’ll be chasing those as well since we’ve never had a $50k 1st place prize and I want it. I really do think we’ve got a enjoyable card that Saturday and that I am ready to enter this 3-week break using a winning night in UFC 227. Here are a few plays I like this weekend together with my fade of this week.
Cash Game play of this week — Demetrious Johnson ($9,400)
Demetrious Johnson is the most powerful play in all DFS MMA and he has the highest ceiling too. DJ is your P4P best fight in the world (not counting Jon Jones) and he has already beat Cejudo once before. This is the very first person I’m plugging into my money LU this week and I suggest you do exactly the same. DJ is practically guaranteed to score at 100-points in a triumph, and he has a -550 betting line stating he must find the win here. Play it safe and use DJ in cash. It’s possible to stack this battle also, but I think DJ is essential.
GPP drama of this week — Thiago Santos ($9,200)
This is a good fight to goal this week because it probably won’t visit a choice. Holland just fought the Contender Series that a few weeks back and didn’t receive a contract. But today he’s on the PPV against one of the most bizarre strikers in the branch. The ITD line for Santos is now -210 and the below 1.5 rounds betting line is -160. That tells me Vegas believes this battle ends ancient and Santos is the guy that should pick up the end. At $9.2k, he readily pays that price tag off at a 1st round win and I think he’s a solid shot at doing just that. I don’t care for him as much in cash game formats however because both guys have very lower flooring, so this is a GPP just play for me personally.
Underdog drama of the week — Brett Johns ($7,400)
I believe everyone is writing off Brett Johns following his loss to Aljo Sterling and that is exactly why he’s so cheap on DraftKings this weekend. With the wrestling style Johns brings to the table, he has 100+ upside in a decision win. Obviously, we’re concerned about him getting caught in a guillotine if he shoots takedowns, but when he can avoid I think he can win this fight and 10x his wages with a win. I don’t think Johns will wish to strike with Munhoz to get 15-minutes so that I do believe he will be shooting takedowns. Those takedowns could get him submitted, or else they could get him a win over the scorecards. However, this makes him a boom or bust play and that is why he is a solid underdog to select in GPPs this past week.
Fade of the week — Danielle Taylor ($7,500)
Even in a cheap $7.5k on DraftKings, Taylor will still require a end to cover that price tag off with her fashion. She has the worst style possible for scoring DraftKings stage and even if she’s a win here she could wind up scoring less than several losers on the card. Taylor will be the least owned fighter in GPPs this week, so if you would like to spend your money on a 115 pound woman using a”punchers chance” of winning you a GPP, then you’ll be quite contrarian taking that route. However, I don’t have any interest in investing my money into that I will have Taylor in 0 of my lineups this week. If I had been making 150 lineups, I’d still full vanish Taylor here.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight about the card and give my complete DraftKings analysis, as well as all of my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
http://mmaoddsbreaker.com/mmaob-premium/upcoming-picks