Your Guide To The 2019 NCAA Men’s Tournament: Midwest region

Top seed outlook: On paper, the Midwest appears to be the most open of those four regions, but we nevertheless give No. 1 North Carolina the best odds, with a 35 percent probability of reaching the Final Four and also an 18 percent likelihood of appearing in the national championship match. Those odds are 8 percentage points lower compared to any other No. 1 team in the area, however, and for good reason: North Carolina’s crime is dependent on turning every play into a fast break. The Tar Heels fight to get to the free-throw line and give up a slew of shots along the perimeter, which, at a slowed-down, half-court matchup, can be quite problematic.
After getting waxed by Duke to start the season, No. 2 Kentucky has caught fire in recent months while discovering equilibrium on the two ends of the ground and largely abstaining from the 3-point line. No. 3 Houston, meanwhile, is currently in the midst of its very best season since Clyde Drexler and Hakeem Olajuwon were revolutionizing school basketball, and they boast a defense which ranks among the very best together and in the perimeter.
Sneaky Final Four select: No. 5 Auburn. When the Tigers steamrolled Tennessee 84-64 in Sunday’s SEC title game, it likely got the attention of a lot of bracket-pickers. That was not a one-off — Auburn also conquer Tennessee eight days before, a portion of a series of eight straight wins for the Tigers, and 10 in their last 11 games. Having an explosive offense (No. 8 in KenPom efficiency) that got more of its points out of downtown compared to every other group in the NCAA field, Auburn can heat up in a hurry. We provide the Tigers almost a coin-flip’s odds of making the Sweet 16 — and an extremely strong 37 percent likelihood of beating top-seeded North Carolina if the Tar Heels are waiting for Auburn there. The only kryptonite may be a hypothetical regional-final matchup with No. 2 seed Kentucky, which beat the Tigers by 27 in late February to sweep their season collection.
Do not wager on: No. 4 Kansas. The Jayhawks went to the season ranked No. 1 in the AP’s preseason poll, and they appeared to validate the choice by starting the season 10-0. However a 15-9 record (and a few key injuries) since then have cast doubt on Kansas’s NCAA Tournament potential. This is a well-balanced team, but to say it doesn’t shoot well from the outside is an understatement — see KU’s 3-for-18 functionality from deep in Saturday’s Big 12 ouster against Iowa State. Add an unfavorable draw that sets them on a potential second-round collision course with Auburn (see above), and we provide the Jayhawks just an 8 percent chance of making out of the Midwest with their championship hopes intact.
Cinderella watch: No. 11 Ohio State. In case a Big Ten team that has made 11 Final Fours could be a Cinderella, then you’re considering it in those Buckeyes. (Hey, the committee’s rising trend to seed underwhelming power-conference colleges this way really messes with the definition) OSU went only 18-13 during the regular season, was defeated in its second Big Ten tournament game and has almost two times as many losses as wins since New Year’s. Why are the Buckeyes a potential Cinderella? Regardless of the seed, this remains a dangerous team, one which ranks 27th in Pomeroy’s corrected defensive ratings and contains star forward Kaleb Wesson back out of suspension. So perhaps they’ll provide Big 12 champ Iowa State trouble. But this tells you something about another potential Cinderellas in this region: Seton Hall got a very tough first-round matchup with underseeded Wofford; none of those other low seeds here are world-beaters. That leaves the Buckeyes, a team that did all it could to perform its way out of this tournament, but has some mad potential regardless.
Player to watch: Cameron Johnson On a group that does not hoist a ton of shots from the perimeter, Johnson is as deadly as they come. Following an injury-riddled effort where he barely made greater than one third of his looks from beyond the arc, the graduate student is canning 46.5 percent of his efforts, which ranks within the top 25 nationwide.
Johnson has thrived in North Carolina’s every-possession-is-a-transition-opportunity plot this year. He has blossomed into one of the best scorers in the ACC, standing between the 85th and 100th percentiles in scoring efficacy in transition, off screens and on spot-ups.
Johnson has raised his game in conference play, boasting the ACC’s top offensive rating (132.5) and accurate shooting percentage (64.6). Suddenly, a player who was not seen as a guaranteed professional now jobs to be a second-round pick.
Likeliest first-round upsets: No. 9 Washington over No. 8 Utah State (49 percent); No. 10 Seton Hall over No. 7 Wofford (37 percent); No. 11 Ohio State over No. 6 Iowa State (33 percent)
Check out our March Madness predictions.
CORRECTION (March 18, 2019, 3:10 p.m.): A former version of this story misstated the amount of Sweet 16s made by Villanova in recent seasons. Though the Wildcats have reached the NCAA Tournament’s”third round” in four of their previous five seasons, that round was the Round of 32 until 2016 because of NCAA naming conventions.